Probabilistic security assessment of sustainable power grids: Multivariate analysis and dependence modeling for risk-based security assessment

Among the existing Renewable Energy Sources (RES), wind power has become significantly important to Transmission System Operators (TSOs) because of two reasons, namely: i. large Wind Power Plants (WPPs) can be connected to bulk power system at transmission level, and ii. large WPPs are being built or planned in regions with a high potential for the extraction of wind energy and TSOs must facilitate their integration. This comes at a time when the electric power industry is undergoing an energy transition due to the increasing penetration of RES and decentralized generation while discarding fossil fuels to achieve a greener future in the form of a low-carbon power system. To accommodate the high penetration of wind power into the existing electrical grid infrastructure while TSOs are facing stranded expansion of transmission infrastructure, TSOs are investing knowledge and money into safe-guarding grid reliability and to meet the required security of supply. As the location of WPPs and demand sites are not always close by, transmission of energy has placed a burden on transmission links in the existing grid infrastructure. Complexity in terms of interspatial dependence and temporal correlation of load and wind power impose a challenging operational threat to TSOs. Thus, it is important to emphasize spatial and temporal dependency to assess system security as TSOs are paving the way for the transition from deterministic to probabilistic reliability management. It is to be noted that system security is one of the two aspects of power system reliability, with the other being system adequacy. The security level of a power system is determined by the likelihood and severity of violations..