Low-carbon roadmap of chemical production: A case study of ethylene in China

The increasing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are primarily driven by the rapid expansion of energy-intensive sectors such as the chemical industry. This work selects ethylene, one of the most important chemicals, as a model study to represent the low-carbon roadmap of chemical production. Four strategies improving the efficiency of fossil resource usage, developing the technology for carbon capture and storage (CCS), CO 2 chemical conversion, and converting biomass resources into chemicals, are used to reduce CO 2 emissions. A comprehensive analysis of the life cycle CO 2 emissions of different ethylene production routes has been performed to compare their emission reduction potential. The results indicate that the BMTO (biomass to olefins via methanol-to-olefins) pathway releases the least CO 2 (- 1.3 t CO 2 /t ethylene), while the CFTO (coal to olefins via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis) possesses the highest CO 2 emissions. Combining CCS with BMTO results in CO 2 emissions of - 8.2 t per t ethylene. Furthermore, we analysed the annual production and CO 2 emissions of ethylene in the last 17 years and integrated this real-time change with different pathways. The CO 2 emissions have decreased by 29.4% per t ethylene from 2000 to 2016 in China. However, the total amount of CO 2 emissions continuously increases in ethylene production industry. Given that China has promised to hit peak CO 2 emissions by 2030, a scenario analysis was performed. To achieve this goal, the ratios of BMTO, CO2MTO (CO 2 to olefins via methanol-to-olefins) or BETE (ethanol to ethylene pathway originating from biomass) pathways should increase by 1.0%, 1.2% and 1.1% annually from 2020, respectively. Then more than 500 million metric tons of CO 2 will be eliminated from 2020 to 2040. The results highlight the pivotal role that regulation and policy administration can play in controlling CO 2 emissions by increasing average technological level and turning to low-carbon rou