Methods for simulation, planning, and operation of Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage under deep uncertainty

The building sector currently accounts for approximately one-third of the global demand for energy, and one-fifth of all energy-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The development and adoption of energy-efficient technologies in this sector is therefore a key element towards efforts for the mitigation of climate change. In particular, heating is the single largest end use of energy in buildings; basic trends towards urbanization, as well as climate change, are also expected to significantly increase the demand of energy for cooling by the middle of the century. Energy technologies which can address both of these aspects are thus particularly promising. In this context, Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) is an increasingly popular shallow geothermal energy technology. This method uses natural aquifer formations to seasonally store energy for heating and cooling, using “warm” and “cold” storage wells combined with a heat pump. This approach can reduce energy demand by more than half in larger buildings. ATES is used in nearly one-tenth of new commercial and utility buildings in the Netherlands, where suitable aquifers – combined with increasing demand for energy-efficient technologies – make the technology especially competitive. However, this growth has already...Policy Analysi