Development of flood management strategies for the Rhine and Meuse basins in the context of integrated river management

Water management of the rivers Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best water management strategy? This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. Within the framework of IRMA-SPONGE a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling was combined with socio-cultural theory. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view on the future, together with the according water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, both where these match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of different water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies.Irma-Spong