An exploration of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with BasGoed

This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. The strategic freight transport model Basgoed was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the basic needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. Starting point for the analysis are the recent long term scenarios for the Netherlands of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (WLO scenarios: Future outlook on welfare, prosperity and the human environment). These scenarios describe two base cases: the High and Low scenario. Both scenarios include a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The bandwidth of freight forecasts is further explored in five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam.Transport and Plannin