Predicting outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis related interstitial lung disease

Aims: To compare radiology-based prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis-related interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) to identify patients with a progressive fibrosis phenotype.Methods: RAILD patients had CTs scored visually and by CALIPER and forced vital capacity (FVC) measurements. Outcomes were evaluated using three techniques: 1.Scleroderma system evaluating visual ILD extent and FVC values; 2.Fleischer Society IPF diagnostic guidelines applied to RAILD; 3.CALIPER scores of vessel-related structures (VRS). Outcomes were compared to IPF patients.Results: On univariable Cox analysis, all three staging systems strongly predicted outcome: Scleroderma System:HR=3.78, p=9×10-5; Fleischner System:HR=1.98, p=2×10-3; 4.4% VRS threshold:HR=3.10, p=4×10-4 When the Scleroderma and Fleischner Systems were combined, termed the Progressive Fibrotic System (C-statistic=0.71), they identified a patient subset (n=36) with a progressive fibrotic phenotype and similar 4-year survival to IPF.On multivariable analysis, with adjustment for patient age, gender and smoking status, when analysed alongside the Progressive Fibrotic System, the VRS threshold of 4.4% independently predicted outcome (Model C-statistic=0.77).Conclusions: The combination of two visual CT-based staging systems identified 23% of an RAILD cohort with an IPF-like progressive fibrotic phenotype. The addition of a computer-derived VRS threshold further improved outcome prediction and model fit, beyond that encompassed by RAILD measures of disease severity and extent