Estimation of HTLV-1 vertical transmission cases in Brazil per annum

Background Brazil has at least 800,000 HTLV-1 infected individuals. HTLV-1 can be transmitted via sexual intercourse, contact with blood and from mother to child, mainly by breastfeeding. Treatments for the high morbidity/mortality associated diseases (ATL and HAM/TSP) are limited, therefore, infection prevention is of utmost importance. However, antenatal screening is not routinely performed in Brazil. A lack of data regarding the number of individuals infected via breastfeeding impairs the development of government policies. The objective is to estimate the number of HTLV-1 infections occurring annually due to mother to child transmission (MTCT) in Brazil, nationally and regionally. Methodology To estimate HTLV-1 MTCT in Brazil the following variables are modelled: number of births, prevalence of HTLV-1 infection in pregnant women, breastfeeding duration rate and transmission risk according to breastfeeding period. The number of cases of HAM/TSP and ATL attributable to MTCT are also estimated. Principal findings In 2008, there were 2,934,828 live births in Brazil. HTLV prevalence in pregnant women in Brazil ranges between 0.1–1.05% by region. An estimated 16,548 HTLV-1 infected women are pregnant each year. According to the breastfeeding pattern and HTLV-1 prevalence of each region there are an estimated 3,024 new cases of HTLV-1 infection due to MTCT annually of which 2,610 are preventable through infant feeding advice. These 3,024 transmissions will result in 120–604 cases of ATL and 8–272 of HAM/TSP. North-East region comprises the high number of MTCT cases, followed by South-East. Conclusions/significance A high number of new HTLV-1 infections due to MTCT occur every year in Brazil. Antenatal screening and avoiding breastfeeding are essential to prevent subsequent development of HTLV-1-associated diseases