Determining the optimal nuclear safety regulatory approach for South Africa's expanding nuclear power industry

South Africa is poised to expand significantly its nuclear power generation industry. Considering that the current South African nuclear safety regulatory approach is applied to regulate the operation and maintenance of one mature nuclear power plant, it is expected that significant adaptation of this approach will occur for the regulatory system to accommodate the planned industry expansion. This dissertation tests the hypothesis that the optimal nuclear safety regulatory approach for South Africa’s planned nuclear industry can already be determined by systematically comparing the suitability of various alternatives in use in the international nuclear industry. Investigating the validity of this hypothesis improves the understanding of the possibilities available for future nuclear safety regulation in South Africa and aids preparations and decision-making in this regard. Research was conducted on the various nuclear safety regulatory approaches applied internationally and on what determines the suitability of each approach in different circumstances. The characteristics of South Africa’s current and planned nuclear power generation industry were investigated. Applying multi-criteria decision making analysis methodology, a test was developed and used to systematically assess the relative suitability of the various regulatory approaches to the South African context. The three primary approaches to nuclear safety regulation considered were the prescriptive approach, the performance based approach and the goal-setting approach. Based on currently available information, the test results show that the goal-setting regulatory approach is the optimal approach for South Africa’s planned nuclear power industry. However research findings also show that the state level bilateral cooperation the South African government would pursue to develop South Africa’s fleet approach to the 9,6 gigawatt nuclear new build programme may have sufficient influence on South Africa’s nuclear industry to change South Africa’s optimal nuclear safety regulatory approach or make this plant specific. The benefits of aligning South Africa’s nuclear safety regulatory approach with the approach applied in the fleet vendor company’s country of origin may outweigh other considerations. The vendor company for South Africa’s nuclear new build programme is not yet known. Even though systematic comparison of the suitability of various regulatory approaches shows that the goal-setting nuclear safety regulatory approach is the optimal approach for South Africa, the hypothesis is shown to be false. The optimal nuclear safety regulatory approach for South Africa’s planned nuclear industry cannot already be determined, since bilateral cooperation with the nuclear new build fleet vendor company’s country of origin may be the dominant factor in shaping South Africa’s nuclear safety regulatory approach. In the interim and in the event that strategic regulatory alignment for the new build fleet is not embarked upon, the research findings and test results have an important implication: Applying the goal-setting approach as the dominant nuclear safety regulatory approach can optimize nuclear safety regulation of South Africa’s nuclear industry