Conditional frequency mapping of move reservoir sedimentation models for improved play assessment

Stratigraphic forward models encode what we know about dynamic stratigraphy in the form of a numerical model that can make various types of predictions of stratal geometries and facies distributions. Unfortunately, limited knowledge of the physical laws that govern various stratigraphic processes, incomplete knowledge of initial conditions, and limited computational power mean that such models have only limited predictive power typically better applied to issues such as reservoir presence rather than reservoir quality of detailed structure. Consequently, current examples of stratigraphic forward models are best used for exploration scale subsurface prediction using a multiple scenario probabilistic approach that is particularly well suited to play assessment and play fairway mapping. Multiple scenario modelling using the new Move sediment modelling tool is a fast and efficient way of identifying a range of statistically likely (but uncertain) deposit distributions and architectures. Application of conditional frequency mapping to these allows play fairway analysis to better accommodate this uncertainty, and hence lead to better play assessment