Police area structure and crime dynamics : investigating the city of Tshwane municipality

Thesis (MPhil) -- Stellenbosch University, 2014.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The impact crime has on neighbourhoods are an ever present feature in modern cities around the world. Neighbourhood structure and socio-economic conditions contribute to criminal activities, and may lead to increasing crime densities. An understanding of the distribution of crime in space can aid in an understanding of such relationships, and thus contribute to proactive policing and crime prevention strategies. The main aim of this study is to analyse the spatial patterns of six types of crime and to determine if there is any evidence of social disorganisation theory and routine activities theory in the police areas in Tshwane. This will be done through density calculations using methods such as Location Quotients of Crime (LQCs) and crime density calculations. Correlating the results with selected neighbourhood characteristics will then test social disorganisation theory and routine activities theory. Results from the study indicate that crime densities differ across police areas within Tshwane, but that the contact crimes are more prevalent in areas with poor socio-economic conditions. The correlation results indicate that that there are a link between areas with low social control areas and the social disorganisation theory. Similarly results indicated that population density correlated with crime in general, which is in agreement with the daily routine theory. The findings from this study could inform the Municipality’s crime fighting strategy in terms of resource distribution.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die impak van misdaad op woonbuurte is ‘n alomteenwoordige eienskap van moderne stede om die wêreld. Die struktuur van woonbuurte en sosio-ekonomiese omstandighede dra by tot kriminele aktiwiteite en kan tot ’n toename in misdaaddigtheid lei. Om die verspreiding van misdaad in ‘n sekere gebied te verstaan kan help om die verband tussen bogenoemde faktore te verstaan en so tot proaktiewe polisiëring en misdaadvoorkomingstrategieë by te dra. Die hoofdoel van hierdie studie is om die ruimtelike patrone van ses verskillende soorte misdade te ontleed en vas te stel of daar enige bewys is van die sosiale wanorde-teorie en die roetine-aktiwiteitsteorie binne die polisie-areas in Tshwane. Dit word deur middel van digtheidsberekeninge gedoen deur metodes soos die Liggingskwosiënt van misdaad (Location Quotients of Crime – LQCs) en misdaaddigtheidsberekeninge te gebruik. Deur die resultate met die geselekteerde kenmerke van woonbuurte te korreleer word die sosiale wanorde-teorie en roetine aktiwiteitsteorie getoets. Resultate van die studie dui aan dat misdaaddigtheid van polisie-areas binne Tshwane verskil, maar dat kontakmisdaad meer algemeen in woonbuurte met swak sosio-ekonomiese toestande voorkom. Die korrelasie-resultate dui aan dat daar ‘n verband tussen areas met lae sosiale beheergebiede en die sosiale wanorde-teorie bestaan. Eweneens het resultate aangedui dat bevolkingsdigtheid met misdaad in die algemeen korreleer. Dit is in ooreenstemming is met die daaglikse roetine-teorie. Die bevindinge van hierdie studie kan ter inligting dien om die Munisipaliteit se misdaadbestrydingstrategie ten opsigte van hulpbronverspreiding te verbeter