EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF WILD LIMA BEAN (\u3ci\u3ePhaseolus lunatus\u3c/i\u3e L., Fabacea)

INTRODUCTION The distribution of wild bean Phaseolus lunatus in Mexico is broad and adapted to several climatic conditions. Recent studies reveal a low conservation status of wild beans in most populations due anthropogenic disturbance of their habitats. Thus the need to implement strategies of conservation in situ arises, based on the knowledge of populations on risk by ecological or climate change disruptions, or by means of ex situ conservation in germplasm banks of individuals in threatened areas, which will allow the maintenance of genetic diversity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change in the years 2020 and 2080 on the potential distribution model (DM) of wild P. lunatus in Mexico. MATERIALS AND METHODS Accessions with geographical information (126) were obtained from several herbarium databases and germplasm banks. Bioclimatic variables (19) were calculated for Mexico based on climate date of the periods 1961-2009 (reference climatology) and compared with 2020s (2015-2039) and 2080s (2075- 2099) representing the early and late 21st century, respectively, under two representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases (RCP 4.5 y 8.5). Distributions were modeled by using Maxent (Philips et al., 2006) and fitted using cross-validation (10 iterations) each one randomly dropping 25% input points, and average test AUC ≥ 0.90. Models were validated by check accuracy of 10% random reservoir dataset. Potential distribution surface results were classified on three categories as percentages of environmental fitness: 0-0.3 probability LEA (Low Environmental Aptitude); 0.3-0.7 probability MEA (Medium Environmental aptitude) and 0.7-1.0 probability HEA (High Environmental Aptitude)