An ex ante evaluation of the interaction between risk behavior and technology adoption in Morocco\u27s dryland agriculture: The case of bread wheat supplementary irrigation

The purpose of this study was to develop and implement all empirical framework for testing whether farmers\u27 ex post risk behavior is relevant to assess ex ante technology adoption. The framework was applied to a sample of 80 farmers in the dryland Chaouia region of Morocco. The farmers were presented with a set of supplementary irrigation alternatives on bread wheat. Measures of ex post risk behavior were estimated using Roy\u27s safety-first rule. Five supplementary irrigation alternatives were considered and generalized stochastic dominance risk efficient sets were derived for three types of risk behavior. A multichoice experiment was implemented on a subsample of forty farmers who were presented with the five alternatives, and a sign test was performed to assess switching in risk behavior. Results showed that farmers\u27 risk attitudes were not sticky, thus questioning attempts usually made to design and assess technology according to ex post risk attitudes. The implications of the research finding are as follows. First, the aridoculture research agenda must emphasize production and transfer of knowledge regarding uncertainty of the physical environment, as well as the risk-efficiency characteristics of generated technologies. Second, dissemination should focus on providing farmers with sound and timely risk information. Finally, agricultural policy needs to be reoriented in order to enhance farmers\u27 safety-first capabilities. Future research should concentrate on the improvement of data accuracy in estimating risk coefficients and on the emerging issue of differentiating between long-run and short-run risk behavior in assessing technology adoption