The development of explicit uncertainty in informal argumentation

Two studies explored the development of uncertainty in informal arguments. Uncertainty was measured two ways: (1) as a response to a certainty rating scale, and (2) as part of a verbal argument. Interpersonal knowledge and the ability to describe a number of possible causes were hypothesized to affect the degree of uncertainty one has in informal arguments. The results of the first study indicated that subjects of all ages had insight into the interpersonal aspects of reasoning, and that they were also able to generate a number of alternative causes for the events depicted in the vignettes. Under most conditions, all subjects indicated a similar degree of uncertainty on the rating scale. However, the fourth graders exhibited greater certainty than the adults and seventh graders when the available information consistently pointed to a particular conclusion. Finally, the fourth graders consistently expressed greater certainty in their verbal arguments than either adults or seventh graders. This indicates that younger arguers may in fact be uncertain of their conclusions, yet may have difficulty expressing this uncertainty. Moreover, this difference in performance does not seem to be related to insight into the interpersonal aspects of argumentation or the ability to generate additional possible causes. A second study elaborated on these findings. The results of the second study indicated that broad differences in the complexity of the task contributed to the greater certainty of the fourth graders on the certainty scale. Finally, when asked to describe when one should be certain or uncertain the fourth graders expressed uncertainty in relation to specific examples, but adults expressed their understanding of uncertainty in a form independent of particular circumstances or content. The results of these studies were discussed in terms of a transition from an implicit understanding of uncertainty which is related to immediate experience or particular content, to an explicit understanding of uncertainty which is independent of particular content. Further research was suggested that would further clarify the relationship between informal argumentation and uncertainty