Zero-probability and coherent betting : A logical point of view

The investigation reported in this paper aims at clarifying an important yet subtle distinction between (i) the logical objects on which measure theoretic probability can be defined, and (ii) the inter- pretation of the resulting values as rational degrees of belief. Our central result can be stated informally as follows. Whilst all subjective degrees of belief can be expressed in terms of a probability measure, the converse doesn\u2019t hold: probability measures can be defined over linguistic objects which do not admit of a meaningful betting interpretation. The logical framework capable of expressing this will allow us to put forward a pre cise formalisation of de Finetti\u2019s notion of event which lies at the heart of the Bayesian approach to uncertain reasoning