Towards a better understanding of the dynamics of Aphis spiraecola Patch (Homoptera: Aphididae) populations in commercial alpine yarrow fields

The spatial distribution of Aphis spiraecola Patch was studied in two commercial yarrow fields located in the Swiss and Italian Alps and represented by Taylor\u2019s (1961) power law. The respective parameters indicate a highly aggregated distribution and lead to a high optimum sample size of 400-500 plants in the design of a sampling program. Opportunities for reducing the sampling efforts are discussed. The infestation patterns were studied on the basis of Vansickle\u2019s (1977) time varying distributed delay adequate for modelling the dynamics of age-structured populations. Published literature data were used to parametrize the functions representing the temperature-dependent duration and survival of the nymphal and adult stage. Likewise, literature data were available to obtain reliable estimates for the parameters of the fecundity function comprising the reproductive profile and the number of nymphs produced at different temperatures. The field data were used to parametrize the functions for wing formation and a compound mortality compromising the effects of plant senescence, stem cutting and natural enemies. The model satisfactorily represented the observed infestation patterns. However, there are opportunities for improving parameter estimation and validation. Moreover, the separation of the compound mortality into host plant and natural enemy effects would improve the mechanistic basis of the model and lead towards a tool that could be used to study bottom-up and top-down effects in the yarrow-aphid-natural enemy system