Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability

Policy makers need to predict the socio-economic vulnerability of their populations to climate change. The method proposed in this paper links the outputs of five regional climate models (CCLM, HadRM3P, RACMO, RCA and REMO) to a compartmental model. The method was applied to a representative village in the Sahelian region of Burkina Faso. The integrated model shows the evolution of three socio-economic groups (“Less vulnerable”, “Vulnerable” and “More vulnerable”) up to 2050 and accounts for farmers strategies, policy interventions and climate. A mathematical analysis of the model confirmed its robustness. The simulations showed no transition from “Vulnerable” to the “More vulnerable” group. The five regional climate model outputs implemented under scenario A1B of the IPCC show that the populations of the village will be “Less vulnerable” to climatic variability, with a percentage likelihood of between 65 and 85%. The “More vulnerable” group can migrate to the “Less vulnerable” group and vice-versa as these two groups transit by the group of the “Vulnerable”. The only covariate risk we considered is climate, particularly rainfall variability. The vulnerability method developed here can be applied in any situation in which it is possible to evaluate the coefficients of transition from one vulnerability group to another