It takes one to know one: Similarity to resident alien species increases establishment success of new invaders

Aim: Darwin's naturalization hypothesis states that dissimilarity to native species may benefit alien species establishment due to empty niches and reduced competition. We here add a new dimension to large-scale tests of community invasibility, investigating the role that previously established alien species play in facilitating or hindering new invasions in plant communities. Location: Permanent grasslands across France (including mainland and Corsica), as a receding ecosystem of great conservation importance. Methods: Focusing on 121 alien plant species occurring in 7,215 vegetation plots, we quantified biotic similarity between new invaders and resident alien species (i.e., alien species with longer residence times) based on phylogenetic and trait distances. Additionally, we calculated distances to native species for each alien species and plot. Using multispecies distribution models, we analysed the influence of these biotic similarity measures and additional covariates on establishment success (presence/absence) of new invaders. Results: We found that biotic similarity to resident alien species consistently increased establishment success of more recently introduced species. Phylogenetic relatedness to previous invaders had an equally strong positive effect as relatedness to native species. Conversely, trait similarity to natives hindered alien establishment as predicted by Darwin's naturalization hypothesis. These results highlight that various mechanisms may act simultaneously to determine alien establishment success. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that, with greater similarity among alien species, invasion success increases. Such a pattern may arise either due to actual facilitation among invaders or as a result of weaker competitive interactions among invaders than between native and alien species, leading to an indirect facilitative effect. Alternatively, recent environmental changes (e.g., eutrophication, climate change) may have added new environmental filters. Determining how initial invasions might pave the road for subsequent invasions is crucial for effective multispecies management decisions and contributes a new aspect to our understanding of community assembly