Implementation of connected and autonomous vehicles in cities could have neutral effects on the total travel time costs: modeling and analysis for a circular city

Autonomous vehicles promise to revolutionize the automobile market, although their implementation could take several decades in which both types of cars will coexist on the streets. We formulate a model for a circular city based on continuous approximations, considering demand surfaces over the city. Numerical results from our model predict direct and indirect effects of connected and autonomous vehicles. Direct effects will be positive for our cities: (a) less street supply is needed to accommodate the traffic; (b) congestion levels decrease: travel costs may decrease by 30%. Some indirect effects will counterbalance these positive effects: (c) a decrease of 20% in the value of travel time can reduce the total cost by a third; (d) induced demand could be as high as 50%, bringing equivalent total costs in the future scenario; (e) the vehicle-kilometers traveled could also affect the future scenario; and (f) increases in city size and urban sprawl. As a conclusion, the implementation of autonomous vehicles could be neutral for the cities regarding travel time costs. City planning agencies still have to promote complementary modes such as active mobility (walking and bicycle), transit (public transportation), and shared mobility (shared autonomous vehicles and mobility as a service).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version