consecutive weather shocks and mortality in Russia

Funding details: Robert Schalkenbach Foundation (funding number: 15-18-10014), Illinois Ornithology Society, FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BPD/122946/2016) and Fuel Cell Technologies Program. Funding text: Olga Popova acknowledges the support from the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) Grant No. 15-18-10014 "Projection of optimal socio-economic systems in turbulence of external and internal environment". Vladimir Otrachshenko acknowledges the research fellowship from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/122946/2016). Vladimir Otrachshenko acknowledges the hospitality of the Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS), Regensburg, Germany, where the part of this paper was developed.This paper examines the impacts of extremely hot and cold days on mortality in Russia, using a 25-year regional panel data. Unlike other studies, the sequence of those extreme days is also taken into account, that is, the impacts of both single and consecutive (i.e. heat waves and cold spells) extreme days are estimated simultaneously. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for the sequence of extreme days. We also disentangle the impacts of those extremes by age and gender. The findings suggest that single hot days increase mortality, while single cold days do not affect mortality. On the other hand, both consecutive hot and consecutive cold days increase mortality in females and males for all age groups, although males are affected more severely. Overall, consecutive days with extreme temperatures impose considerable costs to society in terms of years of life lost. Thus, ignoring the sequences of extreme days that are likely to increase in the future because of climate change may have critical implications for mitigation policies.authorsversionpublishe