Analyzing Animal Disease, Stocker Cattle Production Systems, and Policy Choices in Production Agriculture

Agricultural producers across a diverse set of enterprises face significant risk each year when planting begins, livestock are purchased, or a new investment is made in machinery or facilities. Participants in other industries face risk from financial markets, global trends, and the preferences of customers. Unique to agriculture is risk from biologically-induced time-lags in production, climate variability, invasive species and pests, and disease in addition to the risks faced by other industries. Where some industries are able to spread risk over dozens, hundreds, even thousands of shareholders, the risk from working in production agricultural commonly accrues to a single nuclear family, or a small number of relatives. Farm managers face different decisions daily, and a single choice can significantly impact profitability. The collection of research in the following essay models under widely different circumstances in which management must choose between options that represent significantly different levels of profitability. The first essay included in this research estimates the cost of a Cattle Fever Tick eradication procedure in South Texas to an individual ranch and government agencies. The second essay estimates average daily gain in stocker enterprises based on different levels of days on pasture, stocking rate, and supplementation, and determines whether days on pasture are significantly impacted by changing temperature and precipitation. The third essay determines the value of a theoretical mix of the agricultural revenue coverage (ARC) and price loss coverage (PLC) programs