Prediction of inactive disease in juvenile idiopathic arthritis : A multicentre observational cohort study

Objectives To predict the occurrence of inactive disease in JIA in the first 2 years of disease. Methods An inception cohort of 152 treatment-naïve JIA patients with disease duration <6 months was analysed. Potential predictors were baseline clinical variables, joint US, gut microbiota composition and a panel of inflammation-related compounds in blood plasma. Various algorithms were employed to predict inactive disease according to Wallace criteria at 6-month intervals in the first 2 years. Performance of the models was evaluated using the split-cohort technique. The cohort was analysed in its entirety, and separate models were developed for oligoarticular patients, polyarticular RF negative patients and ANA positive patients. Results All models analysing the cohort as a whole showed poor performance in test data [area under the curve (AUC):