Loss assessment models for seismic risk mitigation in structures

Seismic risk can be defined as an inclusive term that encompasses the probability of different ground motions and the related consequences, depending on the structural vulnerability. Seismic risk analysis is a general procedure that usually can consider different indicators, for both a specific structure or at territorial level: among others, for civil structures, risk is expressed in terms of monetary losses, i.e. costs to be sustained for repairing seismic damage or loss of revenue. This work wants to contribute to the current seismic risk assessment approaches with original contributions to the analysis of both point-like and territorial assets, focusing on some aspects, that are still not or poorly treated in literature. Regarding seismic risk analysis for a single specific structure, this work focuses on seismic risk analysis of industrial productive processes, with particular reference to business interruption losses. Recent seismic events, as the Emilia-Romagna earthquake in 2012, showed that such type of indirect losses can be very significant, and therefore a model is proposed to fill this lack of models for assessing indirect losses due to business interruption. Furthermore, a financial framework is also set up to assess the optimal seismic retrofit strategy for productive processes. In regard to the seismic risk analysis at territorial level, a seismic risk map of Italy is developed. Some considerations on historical losses and the implementation of specific earthquake catastrophe funds is also discussed. Finally, a deep insight on Catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds), as financial tool for transferring potential losses arising from natural hazards is illustrated. In particular, a novel reliability-based CAT bond pricing framework is developed, and applied to a case study represented by the Italian residential building portfolio