Future trends of the automotive Li-Ion battery supply chain in Germany - dynamic effects on raw materials and employment

Researchers as well as car manufacturers expect a greater market penetration of electric vehicles (EV) in Germany and worldwide for the next years and decades. The Lithium-ion battery represents the core technology of electrically driven cars, because it defines technical and economical limitations. Consequently, the knowledge about this technology and the ability to produce it are the relevant drivers for a successful EV diffusion. Due to the expected great market penetration, the battery supply chain has to grow extremely in future or otherwise the economic potential gets lost. But the prospective impacts of this fast growing demand on the supply chain and its environment can be hardly estimated. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to build up a first simulation model, which demonstrates the development of the automotive Li-ion battery supply chain in Germany over the next decades. By means of various EV diffusion scenarios we want to show expected future trends and their impacts on the battery supply chain, on raw materials, production capacities and on employment effects