Trends in policing effort and the number of confiscations for West Coast rock lobster

GLM methods are applied to compliance data on confiscations (and abandonments) and on policing effort to estimate recent trends in the amount of rock lobster that is poached. Estimates for 2016 are based on three months of data only; they are suggested by analysis not to be reliable, and hence recommended to be disregarded. A tentative suggestion for poaching trends relative to 2008 for the northern region (Super-areas 3+4+5+6) is a decrease to 0.3 from 2008 to 2012, with a subsequent increase to 0.5 by 2015. For the southern region (Super-area 8+) the corresponding rounded figures for the same periods (both increases) are 2.0 and 4.0. There is room for alternative suggestions for these numbers, which are put forward primarily to serve as a basis from which to initiate discussions