Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in Mpumalanga, South Africa

Climatic or weather-driven factors such as rainfall have considerable impact on vector abundance and the extrinsic cycles that parasites undergo in mosquitoes. Climate models therefore allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of malaria transmission. While malaria seasons occur regularly between October and May in Mpumalanga, there is considerable variation in the starting point, peak and magnitude of the season. The relationship between rainfall and malaria incidence may be used to better model the variation in the malaria season. As a first step, this study seeks to explore the complex association between rainfall and malaria incidence through time series methods