Mathematical models and the fight against diseases in Africa

n this age of molecular biology, The healthcare industry, politicians and the community at large are trying to find ‘magic bullet’ drugs and vaccines to conquer disease. Although smallpox has been eradicated and polio may soon be a scourge of the past, many pathogens replicate rapidly and mutate prodigiously, enabling them to evolve ways to circumvent our immune systems, as well as our drugs and vaccines. To fight and win the war against new emerging infections such as HIV/AIDS, TB and now SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), it is important to understand the temporal and spatial dynamics of the pathogens in human and, in some cases, animal reservoirs or vector populations. It is also necessary to understand the complex web of socio-economic factors pertinent to controlling the spread of disease, so that feasible, affordable and, most importantly, effective public-health policies can be devised and implemented