Approaches to assessing the status of nearshore and estuarine fish and fisheries and their responses to environmental change

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 163-180).In multispecies fisheries knowledge, personnel and funding limitations often create the dilemma over which species should be the first to receive management and research attention. This thesis uses a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis approach to prioritize 176 South African linefish species on the basis of a number of criteria indicating conservation and socio-economic importance. Each species importance was assessed from the points of view of (1) conservation, (2) each fishery sector separately and combined and (3) the overall combined conservation and sectorial importance. Relative scores within each of the fishery sectors were dominated by two or three species such that the scores separating the remaining species from each other were small. On the whole, the top species included those most important in each sector, biogeographic region and in terms of conservation. The separate and overall ran kings should assist in the development of broadly acceptable management strategies for different fish. Catch data for 129 of 255 functional estuaries on the South African coastline were reviewed and the relationships between fish catch and estuarine size, type and biogeographical region analysed using simple and multivariate models. Estuary size alone explained over 80% of the variation in catch in the warm temperate region and over 90% of the variation in catch in the cool temperate and subtropical region. Further analysis of the two main estuarine types (permanently open and temporarily open/closed estuaries) revealed higher productivity for the permanently open systems. Both estuarine size (ha) and type (5 types) were used to explain catches using general linear models. The models were able to explain 82-98% of the variance in catches. The total estuarine catch in South Africa was estimated at 2 480 tons per annum with a total value of R748 million, of which 99% could be attributed to recreational angling. Estuarine contribution to the inshore marine fisheries was estimated at approximately R846 million per year with estuarine dependent species comprising 83% of the catch of the recreational shore and commercial seine and gillnet fisheries and only 7% of the catch of the recreational spearfishery and commercial and recreational boat fisheries. Total value of estuarine and estuary-dependent fisheries was estimated to be R1.594 billion per annum in 2008 rands. The cool-temperate Olifants and warm temperate Breede estuaries on the west and south coasts of South Africa have both seen a >35% reduction in mean annual runoff (MAR) from a historical reference condition to the present day with a >60% reduction possible under future development. With almost no exceptions, the Olifants Estuary fish assemblage has seen an overall 20% decrease in abundance from reference to the present day and will gradually decline to 55% of reference with a predicted future 60% reduction in MAR. Consequently, future reductions in flow are likely to see the Olifants Estuary progressing towards a low biomass, low diversity, marine-dominated system. In contrast, with the exception of some key exploited species, fish abundance in the Breede Estuary has increased by 6% from reference to the present day and is likely to increase to 115% of reference with future reductions in flow. In all, the fish assemblage will experience a gradual change from a relatively high-diversity low-abundance freshwater-rich system under historical flow conditions to a high-diversity, highabundance, marine-dominated system with future reductions in flow