Socio-economic inequality and ethno-political conflict : evidence from Kenya

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 66-70).This study examines the influence of socio-economic inequalities on the probability of conflict in Kenya and aims to synthesise various causal hypotheses in the literature. This research extends to a regional analysis of a cross-national sample to understand the extent to which structural cleavages account for a cause of potential conflict in Kenya. The post-election violence that emerged in 2008 shed light on the urgency for policy reforms to address the root causes of what was viewed as an imminent outbreak of violence. Various analysts trace the origin of conflict to nepotism, ethnic stratification, historical injustices, poor governance and disparities in resource allocation. Given these sources of dissent, this study proposes that the most fundamental factors that considerably influence the probability of conflict in Kenya are pervasive poverty and extreme inequality, intensified by ethnic divisions. Based on Kuznets theory, we argue that the booms of economic growth experienced from 2003 perpetuated the stark economic and social inequalities prevalent in Kenya. As a result, there is strong evidence that suggests that these sharp inequalities fuelled the post-election violence and deeply influence the probability of conflict in Kenyan society. Another key contribution from the study is the conclusion that the existence of sharp horizontal inequalities result in a bias towards ethnic conflict. It is imperative to identify the underlying causes of conflict so as to neutralise polarisation which exacerbates tension and breeds further conflict. In light of this view, the probability of conflict in Kenya can be minimised effectively and such mitigation can be used as a mechanism for future growth and economic development in Kenya