The consequences of no deal

In my last blog post, I discussed the constraints facing the EU in negotiations over Brexit and concluded by expressing concern that the UK government has failed to adequately understand the domestic constraints faced by the EU. Similarly, as the Salzburg summit demonstrated, EU leaders at times misread the political situation in the UK and underestimate the challenges facing a government that is as deeply divided as the country at large. As such, whilst there now appears to be renewed optimism[1], the risk of a ‘no-deal’ outcome remains significant in spite of the fact that it is in neither side’s interest