RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND OPTIMAL POWER RESOURCE UTILIZATION

Residential electricity consumption is an important component of total electricity sales for Nebraska Public Power District. However, the extent of the contribution of the residential sector to the total electric system load and, in particular, to the seasonal diversity of the system load is not fully understood. The purpose of the present study is to provide an analytical framework for evaluating the seasonal-specific contribution of the residential sector to total system electricity sales and electric power demands placed on the power supply system. The methodology applied in this effort involves three distinct stages of analysis. The first stage of the study focuses on the existence of electric-using appliances in residential structures and the seasonal patterns of electricity consumption through such appliances. Of particular interest in this investigation is the statistical estimation of a seasonal appliance-specific, residential electricity demand model. The parameters of this model are estimated utilizing a set of six bi-monthly cross section regression analyses, incorporating a conditional demand framework into the model specification. In the second analytical phase, residential electricity use for 1990 is simulated utilizing a residential electricity-use model. The residential electric use model, which combines the electricity demand parameters estimated for the residential service area with sample observations for appliance saturation and other customer characteristics, is applied to derive two residential electricity consumption scenarios. These alternate scenarios follow from two distinct assumptions concerning the 1990 saturation level of electric space heating systems in residential structures. The third stage of the study applies linear programming optimization techniques to the 1990 expected load patterns, incorporating the existing residential electric heat saturation level as the base case scenario. Utilizing the second scenario, which embodies an assumed increase in the electric heat saturation level, the resulting effects of changes in the seasonal variation in residential electricity consumption are evaluated with respect to the estimated utilization of power supply resources and utility net revenue