Gravity models and the role of carryover inventories in international wheat trade

In this study, two approaches to the international wheat trade analysis are considered. First, a gravity model is derived from a general equilibrium model of world wheat trade to identify major determinants of the trade flows among trading countries. Second, an extended model is derived to analyze the effects of wheat inventory behavior and some endowment factors on the size of the wheat trade flows. The empirical results show that gravity models are applicable to agricultural commodities. In the case of wheat, income, population sizes of trading countries, distance between commercial centers, prices and levels of stock inventories are found to be major determinants of wheat trade flows