Norwegian Salmonid Farming and Global Warming: Spatial Distribution and Value Adding

Abstract only.The spatial distribution of Norwegian salmon farming depends on license\ud allocation and physical conditions, with politicians defining the former.\ud Currently, relocalization of these is not permitted. With an expected\ud temperature increase in Norwegian waters, this study analyzes increased\ud temperatures impact on the spatial distribution of production and\ud employment. Four scenarios are investigated over a 30 year timespan: - No\ud relocalization and stable temperature - No relocalization and increased\ud temperature - Free relocalization and stable temperature - Free\ud relocalization and increased temperature\ud Temperature has a major effect on fish growth. The production model\ud predicts annual salmon production per year and county, utilizing a\ud simplified approach to model a complex relationship. Total production is\ud based on linear market growth, serving as a restriction in the subsequent\ud model. Productivity per county is determined in a temperature-driven\ud model, and another model predicts the relocalization of licenses.\ud Measurements of industrial statistics like value added and employment are\ud important for policymakers. An input-output model captures the direct and\ud indirect effects of aquaculture production in each county, comparing these\ud to the base scenario. Preliminary findings indicate substantially differing\ud effects on the spatial distribution of production and hence value adding and\ud employment. In the baseline scenario, production growth is relatively equal\ud among the northern, middle and southern parts of Norway. Increased\ud temperature yield shifts production considerably north, both in case of\ud stable and liberalized management