Exchange Rates, Exchange Risk and U.S. Codfish Imports

The effects of exchange rates and risk on U.S. codfish imports from Canada, China, Norway and Iceland are\ud examined in the context of the Armington framework. The exchange rate volatility is measured by the generalized\ud autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method. The nonstationarities of time-series data are\ud explicitly taken into account by employing the Johansen test, the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS)\ud method and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Significant long-run effects of exchange rate\ud volatilities and competing suppliers’ currency uncertainties are supported by the data and cointegration tests.\ud However short-run effects of volatilities cannot be verified by the relevant error correction models (ECM). The\ud estimation results also show that the long-run impact of exchange rate on the import demand is generally larger than\ud that of the relative price. The empirical results in general indicate the important impacts of exchange rates and risk\ud on the U.S. codfish imports