THE USE OF RAINFALL PATTERNS IN PREDICTING POPULATION DENSITIES OF MULTIMAMMATE RATS, \u3ci\u3eMastomys natalensis\u3c/i\u3e

During 3 years we studied a population of multimammate rats, Mastomys natalensis (Smith 1834), in Morogoro, Tanzania. Data were collected in both removal and capture-recapture schemes. We present evidence that patterns of growth and reproduction were related to onset and abundance of rains. This partially explains differences in densities. Additionally, we investigated available literature data and related them with climatological data. A scenario is presented which enables us to predict how densities of multimammate rats may evolve in the following year and whether there will be a risk of outbreaks. The use and implications of this scenario in planning control actions are discussed