An examination of changes in housing submarkets: the case of Shanghai 1994-2005

This thesis is primarily concerned with a study of housing submarkets in Shanghai. Given the experience of housing reform in China, traditional ways of defining housing submarkets need to be replaced by an alternative approach which involves an analysis of dimensions specific to the Chinese case; and understanding of the development of a nested urban housing submarket structure, with a clear distinction between housing supply segmentation and demand differentiation. An analytical framework has been developed within which the driving forces of changes in housing submarkets can be analyzed, using a multiple case study approach. This research applies this framework to two case study neighbourhoods in Shanghai in order to empirically identify housing submarkets, reveal, rather than impose, submarket boundaries, and analyze the driving forces of submarket changes. The thesis emphasizes the existence of submarket structure with spatial and tenure dimensions necessary to ensure full comprehension of local submarket operational processes. It argues that non-spatial household mobility patterns are better indicators than spatial mobility to indicate changes in submarkets. The empirical results affirm that submarket analysis will be subject to an aggregation bias if they fail to accommodate the existence of submarket structure, and that multi-level equilibria and disequilibria may coexist in the submarket complex. It confirms that submarket boundary conditions in Shanghai have changed during the study period, and that changes in submarkets vary directly with household non-spatial mobility. Changes in housing submarkets at differing levels are driven by complicated interactions of different sets of supply and demand drivers which are broadly related to social and economic change, public policy and neighbourhood dynamics. On the basis, the thesis identifies key issues that policy makers need to consider in delivering affordable housing for a full range of urban citizens