Physiologically-Based Demographic Models for assessing the impact of invasive alien species in the light of climate change: a case study on Ceratitis capitata

Future climatic scenarios are expected to influence the geographic distribution, abundance and impacts of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) affecting plant, animal and human health. Most of the modelling approaches projecting climate change effects on IAS are based on correlative approaches that simplify the analysis of the responses of IAS traits to the change in the environmental driving variables. There is a growing need to develop process-based modelling approaches able to capture the complexity of population system’s responses to environmental changes. In this work, we explore the use of a Physiologically-Based Demographic Model (PBDM) to mechanistically represent the influence of environmental drivers on pest’s distribution and impacts under climate change scenarios. As a case study, we applied the PBDM approach for the assessment of the area of potential establishment, abundance and impacts of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata) in Europe. Two climatic scenarios based on gas emission projections (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP) are considered: RCP 4.5 corresponding to a peak of greenhouse gas emission by 2040 and RCP 8.5 corresponding to a steady increase of greenhouse gas emission throughout the 21st century. The model was calibrated against population dynamics datasets from field surveys collected in different European locations. The model allows predicting the current and projected distribution, abundance and impacts of C. capitata in the light of climate change and might be suitable for performing quantitative pest risk analysis. Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Julius Kuehn Institute - Institute for National and International Plant Health