Regional scale socio-economic and ecological impacts

The SCENES project has sought to develop likely future state of Europe’s waters. Because the future is uncertain we have developed a range of possible scenarios that are dependent on two aspects. First aspect is changes to the climate particularly alterations to precipitation and temperature that affect evaporation. These changes will have direct impacts on the overall water resource in Europe and its availability for domestic supply, agriculture and industry and supporting the important services provided by our natural environment. The uncertainty in climate expresses itself as different climate models that show different future conditions. In this study we selected climate input (temperature and precipitation) which was generated by two climate models IPCM4 and MIMR in the IPCC AR4 framework. In general IPCM4 projects drier, warmer conditions. The second aspect is changes in human numbers and our behaviour. Some of these changes, such as population growth show general independent trends. Others may be reactions to climate change, such as farmers selecting different crop types to withstand drier conditions. In additional to change in individual behaviour, the European Union and our national governments may follow different policy options depending on a multitude of drivers and objectives. Within SCENES, four socio-economic scenarios were developed based on UNEP’s GEO4 scenarios and adjusted in a participatory exercise with European stakeholders. (1) Economy First (EcF) where the priority is for economic growth; (2) Fortress Europe (FoE) in which the priority is to be self sufficient; (3) Policy Rules (PoR) where policy dictates over a free-market; and (4) Sustainability Eventually (SuE), which aims at sustainable development. The combination of storylines and climate data provided inputs to a pan-European water model (WaterGAP – Water: Global Assessment and Prognosis) covering all of ‘Greater’ Europe (EU countries and neighbours i.e. Iceland, Norway, western part of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Turkey, non-EU Balkan countries) and including the Mediterranean rim countries of north Africa and the near East. The model produces river flow time series for major water courses of Europe for current day and future, 2050s, scenarios