Effectiveness of protected areas in preventing rubber expansion and deforestation in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.

Protected areas (PAs) are key refuges for the world’s remaining biodiversity, especially in the species rich tropics. However, the tropics also support high human population densities. Xishuangbanna supports a disproportionate fraction of China’s biodiversity (~25 %) within only 0.2% of China’s land surface area. With the increasing demand for natural rubber in China, rubber plantations have expanded rapidly within Xishuangbanna (by 153.4 km2 y-1). By 2010, they occupied 22.1% of its land surface area and were encroaching on PAs. We studied the degree to which PAs in Xishuangbanna were successful in preventing rubber expansion and other non-conservation land uses within their boundaries. We used matching methods to minimize bias due to PA location and to compare land use conversion rates. Matching analysis found that between 1988 and 2010, approximately 11 % of PAs land area was deforested, at a rate of 10.7 km2yr-1. This is significantly higher than the deforestation rate of 9.3 km2yr-1 that would be calculates by applying conventional analysis techniques. PAs were shown to be less effective than had previously been thought.peerReviewe