Georges over Puerto Rico

Proceedings of the 1999 Georgia Water Resources Conference, March 30 and 31, Athens, Georgia.Hurricane Georges, the second most deadly tropical storm of this past hurricane season, posed a unique forecasting problem to the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC). Though the SERFC has produced river forecasts for many hurricanes making landfall along the Gulf Coast and South Atlantic seaboard, this event was the first time the SERFC attempted to provide river guidance to Puerto Rico. Prior to this powerful storm's movement across the island, the SERFC provided forecasts on projected river response to the anticipated heavy rainfall. This paper will provide a case study on the results of these forecasts as compared to the actual river response as a result of observed rainfall associated with Georges. A comparison of actual precipitation amounts against forecasted rainfall is studied. Noteworthy river forecast model deficiencies are also discussed.Sponsored and Organized by: U.S. Geological Survey, Georgia Department of Natural Resources, The University of Georgia, Georgia State University, Georgia Institute of TechnologyThis book was published by the Institute of Ecology, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602-2202 with partial funding provided by the U.S. Department of Interior, geological Survey, through the Georgia Water Research Insttitute as authorized by the Water Research Institutes Authorization Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-397). The views and statements advanced in this publication are solely those of the authors and do not represent official views or policies of the University of Georgia or the U.S. Geological Survey or the conference sponsors