We compare a Global VAR model of actual and expected outputs with alternative models to assess the role of cross-country interdependencies and confidence in forecasting. Forecast performance is judged on point and density forecasts of growth, on probability forecasts of the occurrence of national and global recessionary events and, through a novel ‘fair bet’ exercise, on decision-making using probability forecasts. We find multi-country data and survey data are needed to fully capture the influence of global interactions and expectations in forecasts. We argue that output predictions should avoid simple point forecasts and focus on densities and events relevant to decision-makers
This paper advances beyond the prediction of the probability of a recession by also considering its ...
Using the business cycle accounting (BCA) framework pioneered by Chari, Kehoe and McGratten (2007, E...
In this paper, we assess whether and when multi-country studies pay off for forecasting inflation an...
We compare a Global VAR model of actual and expected outputs with alternative models for assessing t...
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accura...
We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based o...
This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a ...
Output fluctuations in the G7 are characterised using a VAR model of countries' actual and expected ...
This paper develops a Bayesian variant of global vector autoregressive (B-GVAR) models to forecast a...
This paper examines growth forecasts of models that allow for cross-country interactions and/or a ti...
A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great G...
We provide a comprehensive analysis of the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of different global vec...
This article considers some of the technical issues involved in using the global vector autoregressi...
A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great G...
The paper contributes to the growing global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national...
This paper advances beyond the prediction of the probability of a recession by also considering its ...
Using the business cycle accounting (BCA) framework pioneered by Chari, Kehoe and McGratten (2007, E...
In this paper, we assess whether and when multi-country studies pay off for forecasting inflation an...
We compare a Global VAR model of actual and expected outputs with alternative models for assessing t...
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accura...
We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based o...
This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a ...
Output fluctuations in the G7 are characterised using a VAR model of countries' actual and expected ...
This paper develops a Bayesian variant of global vector autoregressive (B-GVAR) models to forecast a...
This paper examines growth forecasts of models that allow for cross-country interactions and/or a ti...
A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great G...
We provide a comprehensive analysis of the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of different global vec...
This article considers some of the technical issues involved in using the global vector autoregressi...
A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great G...
The paper contributes to the growing global VAR (GVAR) literature by showing how global and national...
This paper advances beyond the prediction of the probability of a recession by also considering its ...
Using the business cycle accounting (BCA) framework pioneered by Chari, Kehoe and McGratten (2007, E...
In this paper, we assess whether and when multi-country studies pay off for forecasting inflation an...