More than People, Equipment and Environment: Developing a Systems Thinking Approach to Risk Assessment in the Led Outdoor Activity Context

Inadequate risk assessment has frequently been implicated in the injuries and deaths of participants on led outdoor activity (LOA) programs in Australia and internationally. It is unclear whether systems thinking, the currently accepted understanding to accident causation within the LOA domain and other safety-critical domains, has been applied in LOA risk assessment methods. This thesis addresses this gap by (1) assessing current approaches to risk assessment in the LOA context and other safety-critical domains in general and by (2) developing and evaluating a systems thinking-based risk assessment method for the LOA context. First, a survey study and literature review were conducted to understand the existing methods and approaches currently being used in risk assessments in both the LOA domain and across safety-critical domains generally. The findings indicated that contemporary risk assessments methods largely focus on the sharp end: the immediate context of the work environment or hazardous process. Within an LOA context, this sharp end reflects the individuals associated with the delivery of the activity or the likely equipment and/or environmental conditions. This focus prevents the identification of other risks that may be associated with the design and planning phases of the same LOA program, exactly the areas previously identified as contributory in LOA accident analyses. In addition, the literature review revealed that few existing risk assessment methods align with systems thinking. Further, and echoing LOA practitioners’ concerns from the survey study, the few existing risk assessment methods that do align with systems thinking have limitations (e.g., complexity, usability) that prevent their application by practitioners in the LOA context. Part 2 of this thesis addresses the limitations of current risk assessment methods by designing and developing a new systems thinking-based risk assessment method, the NETworked Hazard Analysis and Risk Management System (NETHARMS). A case study application of NET-HARMS to the design and delivery of a fiveday camping and rafting LOA program demonstrated that NET-HARMS is capable of identifying both task and emergent risks across LOA systems, as well as risks at the sharp end (delivery of the LOA). Part 3 of this thesis involves formally evaluating NET-HARMS by assessing its reliability and validity when used by both LOA practitioners and human factors researchers. Results showed that a multi-analyst approach is central to the identification and assessment of the highest number of credible risks. Finally, the strengths and limitations of the program of research and recommendations for future research are discussed.Submitted in the fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, University of the Sunshine Coast, 2018