Techno-economic analysis of high potential offshore wind farm locations in Turkey

The wind energy market is rapidly growing in Turkey which made it one of the top three countries in Europe, and the seventh in the world, in terms of wind power capacity addition in 2016. Turkey has high onshore and offshore wind power potential which is widely distributed across the country. However, there has been no offshore wind farm (OWF) in operation in Turkey. This paper performs a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of OWF projects in three of the most promising wind locations (namely, Bozcaada, Gokceada, and Bandirma). The optimal OWF sites are selected by applying a multi-criteria site selection method to Turkey's coastal regions. Technical analysis consists of annual energy production estimation using the Virtual Wind Farm model and development of various electrical system design topologies for the proposed OWF projects. A detailed economic feasibility analysis is then conducted using a discounted cash flow economic model that considers current Turkish renewable energy support schemes under various discount rates. Taking the OWF investor's perspective, this study accounts for the key economic indicators which are used in the decision-making processes. The results of various model runs are compared to determine the best options for the proposed OWF investments to be profitable. It is shown that the proposed OWF projects are economically feasible only in the case of meeting certain techno-economic conditions. The radial electrical design is proved to be the most cost-effective option. Among the proposed projects, the Bozcaada OWF appears to be the best investment option with a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $81.85–109.55 per MWh while the Bandirma OWF is the least economically viable with an LCOE of $100.73–135.97 per MWh. The findings are extrapolated to suggest feasible recommendations for the investors and policy makers which will help to shape the offshore wind energy outlook of Turkey