Use of geographical and socio-economical information to support the risk assessment of foot and mouth disease in the frontier between Brazil and Paraguay

ln 2001, Brazil was able to eliminate the outbreaks of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in bovine herds. After that, meat exports had an increase of 200%. However, in September 2005 occurred a FMD outbreak in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) and Parana, and then, not only them, but also other states, lost the status of the "FMD free zone with vaccination" and they were forbidden to export meat to other countries. According ta Gazeta Mercantil Journal (2005) the loss related to the return of the FMD disease in Mato Grosso do Sul, reached US$ 1.5 billion, due to commercial restriction of meat exportations. Only in July, 2008, after three years of the outbreak, Mato Grosso do Sul was considered free with vaccination by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). Because of the different production systems, socio-economical conditions and geographieal eharaeteristie over the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, which has one of the Brazilian's biggest bovine herd (20-million heads) working on FMD risk assessment of FMD involves to address the problematic with an holistie approach. The aim of the Ph.D. project is to analyze the potential use of geographical informations as weil as geospatial tools (maps, satellite images) and use with OTAG decisional support system to make risk assessment of FMD. Two experimental eounties in the state of Mato Grosso do Su 1 in the frontier between Brazi 1 and Paraguay eonsidered by the Brazi 1ian Government a high surveillance region for FMD disease were seleeted. Production praetiees and their specifie geographieal eharaeteristies (land cover, land use, infrastructure, etc.) will be studied with the use of Landsat 5 satellite images and field survey. Soeio-eeonomical, sanitary and animal movements data for eaeh eounty will be analysed. The researeh will also involve a temporal analysis, based on the evolution of the territories and human practices, the aetual picture of these counties, regarding the 2005 FMD outbreak. Ali the parameters will be analyzed in order to develop a methodology to determine and improve deeisional ind ieators that wi Il have potentia 1 issue for FMD risk assessment. (Texte intégral