Global Conflict Risk Index: New variables in 2018

The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) is an early warning system designed to give policy makers a global risk assessment based on economic, social, environmental, security and political factors. The GCRI is composed of two statistical models: the regression model, that quantifies the probability and the intensity of national and subnational conflicts occurring in the next one to four years, and the composite model, whose aim is to provide an overview of the factors contributing to conflict at country level. Both models are based on twenty-four individual variables, whose raw data are open-source. While it is generally agreed that political and social variables are the most relevant ones for conflict risk modelling, other variables and their linkages with armed conflicts have received growing attention from both academics and policy makers in recent years, e.g. climate variability. Indeed, the nature of conflict is evolving and the diversity of conflict drivers has been acknowledged. In this report new triggers of instability, such as climate variability, levels of resilience, and displaced people are explored as drivers of conflicts. The aim is to improve the accuracy of the regression model, and further develop the GCRI with new variables.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen