Modelling residential aged care in Australia: entry and exit

© 2017 Dr. Marijan JukicAgeing of the Australian population affects the residential aged care system, yet the structure and dynamics of the system remain uncertain. A comprehensive model of residential care based on the individual perspective of residential aged care events is missing. Thus, older Australians, government and care providers have only a limited model of aged care actions. This study uses big administrative unit record data on aged care assessments (ACAP), aged care appraisals (ACFI) and unit record survey data (SDAC) to identify factors associated with aged care events in older persons’ trajectories towards and through residential care. To achieve this goal and broaden understanding of Australian residential care, this study uses the following steps: (1) modelling of the probability of entry to and exit from residential care, with a multi-state model of transitions between levels of care needs; (2) modelling the applications for aged care and approvals for entry to residential care; (3) derivation of transition and mortality assumptions for individual care needs that can be used in a projection model; (4) estimation of life expectancy in residential care based on needs for assistance; and (5) assessing the quality of Australian data on aged care for statistical modelling and projections of residential care demand. The results show that health factors, above all needs for assistance, determine the speed and direction of a person’s progression towards institutional care. Probabilities of aged care events, transition rates and life expectancy estimates, derived in this study, provide a comprehensive picture of Australian residential aged care. These findings are expected to have important implications for residential aged care policies in Australia in terms of having better understanding and more accurate predictive power for the future of aged care