Making the connection: a case study analysis of the public transport network effect in practice

© 2017 Iain James LawriePublic transit mode share in dispersed lower density cities common in North America and Australia is typically low. Except where users are captive, or where the density of activity is so high that congestion is a significant deterrent, transit generally fails to compete with the private car. However, a high proportion of private car use is associated with a range of economic, social and environmental challenges. A number of public transport operational approaches are available to policy makers. The ‘network effect’ is one operating approach specifically aimed at serving the complex travel patterns of dispersed lower density cities. The approach relies on effective transfers between transit modes. In compensation for the inconvenience of transfer, passengers are rewarded with a service providing access to a wide, rather than limited, geographic area. Whilst the theory is well established, analysis of its success in practice is less well researched. Network effect theory would benefit from further research into the relationship between urban density, service levels and rates of transfer between transit modes using real world case studies. Using the case study of the Dandenong railway line in Melbourne and the eastern branch of the Montreal Metro Green line, the thesis addressed three key questions. (i) Is there a level of feeder transit service above or below which we see substantial shifts in the number of people transferring?; (ii) which variables play the greatest role in influencing rates of transfer between transit modes?; and (iii) do subjective attributes of station urban design influence transfer numbers — everything else being broadly equal? Data was collected from transit operators, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Statistics Canada and by direct observations during field visits. An empirical quantitative approach was used to address question (i), a hierarchal linear multiple regression statistical approach used to address question (ii), whilst a quantitative approach was used for question (iii). It was found that where fewer than 100 feeder bus services operated per weekday day, limited transferring will occur, regardless of urban density. However, it was additionally found that frequent, connected services alone will not guarantee high rates of transfer. Evidence suggests direct bus routes, accessing stations at right angles to rail lines, are strongly correlated with higher rates of transfer, again regardless of density. The findings will be important for transit agencies looking to benefit from the theoretical advantages of the network effect. The results are particularly relevant to transport planners in Melbourne and Montreal where the Melbourne Metro and Reseau Electric Metropolitan (REM) projects will require substantial passenger access via feeder bus to achieve their patronage forecasts