Decision-making under spatial uncertainty

© 2005 Susannah Jayne HopeErrors are inherent to all spatial datasets and give rise to a level of uncertainty in the final product of a geographic information system (GIS). There is growing recognition that the uncertainty associated with spatial information should be represented to users in a comprehensive and unambiguous way. However, the effects on decision-making of such representations have not been thoroughly investigated. Studies from the psychological literature indicate decision-making biases when information is uncertain. This study explores the effects of representing spatial uncertainty, through an examination of how decision-making may be affected by the introduction of thematic uncertainty and an investigation of the effects of different representations of positional uncertainty on decision-making. Two case studies are presented. The first of these considers the effects on decision-making of including thematic uncertainty information within the context of an airport siting decision task. An extremely significant tendency to select a zone for which the thematic classification is known to be of high certainty was observed. The reluctance to select a zone for which the thematic classification is of low certainty was strong enough to sometimes lead to decision-making that can only be described as irrational. The second case study investigates how decision-making may be affected by different representations of positional uncertainty within the context of maritime navigation. The same uncertainty information was presented to participants using four different display methods. Significant differences in their decisions were observed. Strong preferences for certain display methods were also exhibited, with some representations being ranked significantly higher than others. The findings from these preliminary studies demonstrate that the inclusion of uncertainty information does influence decision-making but does not necessarily lead to better decisions. A bias against information of low certainty was observed, sometimes leading to the making of irrational decisions. In addition, the form of uncertainty representation itself may affect decision-making. Further research into the effects on decision-making of representing spatial uncertainty is needed before it can be assumed that the inclusion of such information will lead to more informed decisions being made