Overestimate of Committed Warming

Palaeoclimate variations are an essential component in constraining future projections of climate change as a function of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) describes the multi-millennial response of Earth (in terms of global mean temperature) to a doubling of CO2 concentrations. A recent study used a correlation of inferred temperatures and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases over the past 800,000 years to estimate the ESS from present day CO2 is about 9 degrees C, and to imply a long-term commitment of 3-7 degrees C even if greenhouse gas levels remain at present-day concentrations. However, we demonstrate that the methodology of ref. 2 does not reliably estimate the ESS in the presence of orbital forcing of ice age cycles and therefore conclude that the inferred present-day committed warming is considerably overestimated