Where are we heading with electric vehicles?

This paper concludes that compared to conventional fossil-fuelled vehicle technologies, electric vehicles (EVs) are the best and most robust option with regard to moving to a zero emission road transport system. They enable significant to very deep (98%) 'reductions' in greenhouse gas emissions, where large reductions depend on the extent that the Australian electricity generation will eventually use renewable energy. Fuel cell vehicles appear not to have the same benefits as battery electric vehicles. They perform only slightly better than conventional fossil-fuelled vehicles in terms of energy use per km. In contrast, EVs use approximately a factor of 3-5 times less energy. In fact, fuel cell vehicles are expected to produce a large 'increase' in greenhouse gas emission of about a factor of two, but have the potential to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emission of about 80%, but have the potential to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the long term, but only on the strict condition that Australia significantly increases its use of renewable energy. EVs and fuel cell vehicles are both expected to significantly improve local air quality, particularly in urban areas where population and associated transport needs are concentrated. However, the extent to which renewable energy is used, is again an important factor in relation to level of improvement that will be achieved. The economic case for EVs is strong. The (hidden) economic costs of air pollution and associated public health impacts caused by fossil-fuelled vehicles will be substantially reduced. 'Total cost' parity (purchase plus operating) with conventional vehicles is expected to occur in the early to mid 2020s. In contrast to other regions in the world, Australia has a relatively sluggish track record in EV promotion and uptake, mainly due to a lack of supportive policies. New Zealand and some jurisdictions in Australia have taken a significantly more active stance regarding EVs. It is prudent that Australia does the same given the current transformation towards connected and autonomous vehicles (AVs) where electric vehicles are considered to be the 'natural partner' of AVs. EVs can help a transition to a more renewable energy system as relatively cheap energy storage devices. So where are we heading with electric vehicles? Although there are significant differences between countries and regions in the world, the available data suggest we are definitely heading away from fossil-fuelled road transport towards a fully transformed road transport system where electric vehicles will dominate, or at least play a key role. Electric vehicles are the obvious choice when considering environmental and economic benefits. Other fundamental shifts such as autonomous vehicles and renewable energy are mutually reinforcing developments. Co-development with a clean and climate-friendly electricity generation system will enable deep cuts in greenhouse and air pollution emissions