Long-term optimization of Egypt’s power sector: Policy implications

This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifiesprospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon devel-opment issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals asreflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewableenergy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emission s’ mitigation towardlow-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation.The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly naturalgas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reducedependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversificationchanging with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase theeffects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price,and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for powergeneration and develop a low-carbon societyPRIFPRI3; ISI; IFPRIOA; CRP5; The Water Energy Food Nexus; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural EconomiesEPTD; DSGDCGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE